* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952025 06/29/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 52 65 70 73 70 65 59 50 41 33 25 18 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 52 65 70 73 70 65 59 50 41 33 25 18 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 36 44 50 53 53 48 43 35 29 23 18 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 9 5 5 4 9 13 11 12 12 10 15 10 14 15 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 -4 -4 -2 0 -3 -3 2 1 4 0 3 3 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 32 28 28 38 358 98 65 120 115 111 94 107 113 121 115 130 126 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.1 28.6 27.8 26.6 25.3 24.2 23.5 22.3 21.2 20.7 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 157 160 160 155 150 141 129 115 103 95 83 71 66 66 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 84 84 85 86 83 85 80 78 70 63 59 55 52 51 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 9 10 10 13 16 15 16 16 16 15 13 10 7 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 6 8 17 38 44 54 80 72 64 63 60 52 45 45 34 25 35 200 MB DIV 69 77 90 102 108 114 116 106 114 110 42 2 0 -11 25 12 -8 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 -4 -1 -2 -1 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 377 381 382 336 304 261 231 224 271 341 237 184 233 247 263 332 431 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 7 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 39 40 40 40 38 32 25 16 10 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 18. 23. 25. 25. 25. 24. 21. 18. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. 12. 11. 7. 3. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 27. 40. 45. 48. 46. 40. 34. 25. 16. 8. 0. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 99.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 06/29/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.86 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.77 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 7.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -7.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.60 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.35 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.3% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 27.0% 35.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 23.7% 9.8% 5.3% 2.8% 24.7% 54.4% 12.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 10.2% 5.7% 1.4% 0.2% 1.8% 1.6% 7.4% Consensus: 0.6% 19.4% 11.3% 2.2% 1.0% 17.8% 30.5% 6.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 9.0% 8.0% SDCON: .8% 13.7% 7.1% 1.6% .5% 10.4% 19.7% 7.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 06/29/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##