* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062025 06/29/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 47 54 62 77 87 91 91 82 74 64 53 43 35 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 41 47 54 62 77 87 91 91 82 74 64 53 43 35 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 40 45 50 56 71 86 94 91 81 67 53 41 31 24 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 6 6 7 7 6 8 10 8 7 12 9 8 11 10 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -5 -6 -3 0 -3 1 5 1 1 4 1 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 32 36 34 13 19 78 86 119 111 95 72 103 135 134 155 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.7 29.9 29.6 28.8 28.5 28.1 25.5 25.3 24.3 23.2 21.8 21.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 162 164 161 152 149 144 117 115 104 92 78 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -51.8 -52.3 -51.2 -51.7 -51.1 -51.7 -51.3 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 7 5 4 2 3 1 1 0 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 82 85 84 84 81 82 77 76 70 65 63 64 59 56 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 9 12 14 18 20 23 21 21 20 16 13 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 26 45 45 44 74 76 76 60 66 43 41 37 19 15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 90 104 101 97 108 103 91 118 79 19 21 5 20 24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 -1 -1 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 371 345 313 284 256 215 196 221 260 284 166 170 170 150 185 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.7 15.3 16.4 17.5 18.4 19.5 20.5 21.5 22.4 23.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.7 100.3 100.8 101.5 102.2 103.7 105.3 106.8 108.0 109.2 110.5 111.6 112.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 40 39 37 34 29 21 14 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 56.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 18. 18. 18. 17. 14. 11. 7. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 17. 16. 13. 8. 4. 2. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 7. 1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -9. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 27. 42. 52. 56. 56. 47. 39. 29. 18. 8. -0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.2 99.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062025 FLOSSIE 06/29/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.78 14.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 9.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.84 11.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -14.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.62 8.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.34 2.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 4.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 60% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 68% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 58.7% 45.4% 34.7% 25.2% 59.8% 67.6% 53.7% Logistic: 18.5% 69.2% 50.8% 41.6% 34.3% 62.9% 63.5% 11.1% Bayesian: 8.6% 64.7% 63.9% 38.0% 21.9% 57.8% 36.0% 23.4% Consensus: 14.1% 64.2% 53.4% 38.1% 27.1% 60.2% 55.7% 29.4% DTOPS: 4.0% 24.0% 11.0% 6.0% 2.0% 22.0% 13.0% 5.0% SDCON: 9.0% 44.1% 32.2% 22.0% 14.5% 41.1% 34.3% 17.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062025 FLOSSIE 06/29/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##