* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062025 06/30/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 58 65 77 84 84 77 65 54 42 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 58 65 77 84 84 77 65 54 42 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 52 56 67 76 78 69 56 45 35 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 11 9 7 7 9 11 15 9 14 10 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 -2 0 -1 2 0 6 1 -1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 15 19 41 38 36 137 104 113 98 91 116 180 187 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.9 29.8 29.4 29.5 28.9 28.2 27.1 25.3 25.1 24.3 22.3 21.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 164 163 159 160 153 145 134 115 113 105 84 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 5 5 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 84 83 83 83 85 81 78 75 68 65 61 59 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 14 15 15 16 19 22 24 23 20 18 14 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 46 59 71 79 76 73 64 67 57 44 30 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 132 100 94 88 85 108 92 91 64 33 17 -1 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 295 272 259 227 198 200 256 320 262 163 156 146 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.1 15.6 16.3 16.9 17.9 18.8 19.8 20.6 21.6 22.8 23.8 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.3 102.0 102.7 103.6 104.5 106.1 107.5 108.7 109.7 110.7 111.8 113.0 114.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 10 9 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 35 33 30 26 17 11 6 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 55.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. 7. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 11. 16. 17. 12. 8. 3. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 7. 1. -3. -6. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 25. 37. 44. 44. 37. 25. 14. 3. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.5 101.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062025 FLOSSIE 06/30/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.75 11.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.73 8.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 27.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -11.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.65 7.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.28 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 43.3% 33.6% 22.4% 16.3% 34.9% 40.3% 17.6% Logistic: 8.1% 45.3% 26.0% 17.9% 10.8% 28.7% 14.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 2.5% 29.0% 26.5% 10.4% 1.3% 20.8% 5.6% 0.2% Consensus: 8.2% 39.2% 28.7% 16.9% 9.5% 28.1% 20.1% 6.1% DTOPS: 12.0% 54.0% 38.0% 27.0% 23.0% 27.0% 42.0% 2.0% SDCON: 10.1% 46.6% 33.3% 21.9% 16.2% 27.5% 31.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062025 FLOSSIE 06/30/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##