* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062025 06/30/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 72 78 85 84 77 64 51 40 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 72 78 85 84 77 64 51 40 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 62 67 72 76 81 79 69 55 44 35 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 9 7 10 15 16 11 10 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 -1 -1 3 0 0 0 -1 -4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 56 51 53 54 86 89 119 120 112 112 203 206 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.4 27.6 26.9 25.0 24.1 23.7 22.0 21.4 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 155 150 148 139 131 112 102 98 80 73 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 82 83 83 80 78 74 66 63 59 58 57 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 15 17 20 21 21 19 16 14 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 75 80 67 65 68 65 71 50 46 35 20 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 70 76 98 96 85 87 46 16 28 2 20 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 1 0 -1 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 248 221 208 221 230 288 356 281 199 216 200 198 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.7 19.6 20.4 21.5 22.5 23.4 24.2 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.2 104.0 104.8 105.6 106.4 107.8 109.0 110.1 111.2 112.3 113.3 114.0 114.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 28 24 20 16 10 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -12. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 5. 1. -2. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 1. -2. -5. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 23. 30. 29. 22. 9. -4. -15. -25. -33. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.9 103.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062025 FLOSSIE 06/30/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.56 10.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 11.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.66 9.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -13.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.56 7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 10.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.20 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 4.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.2% 56.9% 44.4% 34.5% 22.1% 31.4% 20.0% 9.8% Logistic: 16.6% 41.1% 22.9% 15.5% 8.0% 10.4% 2.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 19.2% 38.9% 28.0% 17.0% 12.8% 7.6% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 19.6% 45.6% 31.8% 22.3% 14.3% 16.5% 7.7% 3.3% DTOPS: 22.0% 44.0% 28.0% 25.0% 12.0% 23.0% 10.0% 0.0% SDCON: 20.8% 44.8% 29.9% 23.6% 13.1% 19.7% 8.8% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062025 FLOSSIE 06/30/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##