* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062025 07/01/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 73 80 88 94 99 94 82 66 49 36 24 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 73 80 88 94 99 94 82 66 49 36 24 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 74 80 84 87 90 85 71 57 45 36 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 7 3 3 8 18 15 15 8 5 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -1 3 0 -3 1 -2 -2 0 -5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 45 46 44 63 104 113 122 130 116 137 119 140 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.1 28.5 28.4 27.9 27.5 25.9 24.6 24.1 23.2 22.1 21.3 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 149 148 142 138 121 107 102 92 81 73 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -51.7 -52.3 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 4 5 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 83 81 80 77 74 68 65 60 63 62 61 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 17 18 20 21 20 18 15 12 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 74 62 56 61 54 68 65 44 31 8 4 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 67 73 85 80 92 55 32 15 0 11 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 223 216 226 233 268 327 361 295 256 252 219 208 195 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.2 19.1 19.7 20.4 21.4 22.4 23.2 24.2 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.9 104.8 105.7 106.5 107.2 108.5 109.7 110.9 111.9 112.7 113.3 114.1 114.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 24 20 16 13 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 57.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -0. -4. -8. -13. -18. -23. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 0. -4. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 15. 7. 1. -3. -6. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 23. 29. 34. 29. 17. 1. -15. -29. -41. -50. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.4 103.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062025 FLOSSIE 07/01/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.44 8.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 13.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.70 10.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -14.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.53 7.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 10.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 8.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 53% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 5.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 52.7% 62.2% 49.2% 41.1% 28.5% 30.0% 19.1% 8.5% Logistic: 33.8% 56.8% 39.9% 32.4% 12.1% 15.6% 1.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 38.6% 39.9% 32.0% 24.5% 6.3% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 41.7% 53.0% 40.4% 32.7% 15.7% 16.4% 6.8% 2.8% DTOPS: 47.0% 60.0% 49.0% 39.0% 19.0% 30.0% 3.0% 0.0% SDCON: 44.3% 56.5% 44.7% 35.8% 17.3% 23.2% 4.9% 1.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062025 FLOSSIE 07/01/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##