* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062025 07/01/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 83 87 90 96 88 75 58 43 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 76 83 87 90 96 88 75 58 43 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 76 80 83 85 84 77 65 52 41 32 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 5 5 8 11 14 13 14 10 13 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 39 36 67 119 96 105 120 114 100 116 115 135 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.5 26.8 25.8 24.8 24.1 23.0 21.6 21.1 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 150 148 143 138 130 119 109 103 91 76 71 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 84 82 81 77 76 72 66 62 61 60 57 55 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 17 17 23 21 20 16 14 11 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 67 58 67 66 71 76 54 29 16 10 -8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 82 90 78 83 87 87 61 17 25 11 14 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 4 1 0 -3 -1 0 0 -1 5 0 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 228 243 246 279 322 398 382 311 256 263 264 323 383 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.3 19.0 19.5 20.2 21.4 22.4 23.1 23.7 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.7 105.6 106.4 107.2 107.9 109.2 109.9 110.7 111.9 112.9 113.9 115.1 116.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 6 8 6 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 20 17 13 11 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 50.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -9. -13. -18. -23. -29. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 5. 5. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 6. 1. -3. -5. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 17. 20. 26. 18. 5. -12. -27. -40. -52. -61. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.7 104.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062025 FLOSSIE 07/01/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.36 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 9.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.68 8.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -11.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.57 6.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 8.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.14 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 37.3% 47.2% 38.2% 26.2% 17.4% 24.1% 16.3% 0.0% Logistic: 17.5% 34.2% 18.1% 12.7% 5.2% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 20.9% 12.8% 8.1% 5.4% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 25.2% 31.4% 21.5% 14.8% 7.7% 9.0% 5.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 32.0% 37.0% 26.0% 24.0% 21.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 28.6% 34.2% 23.7% 19.4% 14.3% 10.0% 2.7% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062025 FLOSSIE 07/01/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##