* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062025 07/01/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 86 90 94 96 92 83 67 51 37 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 86 90 94 96 92 83 67 51 37 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 85 88 89 88 82 69 56 43 33 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 5 4 5 8 15 10 11 14 14 16 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -4 1 4 -1 0 0 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 44 68 109 99 88 117 125 120 147 153 165 166 182 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.3 26.0 24.6 24.1 22.6 21.4 20.6 20.7 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 144 138 136 122 108 102 87 74 66 67 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 3 2 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 80 79 75 75 67 61 56 56 54 55 50 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 15 18 19 20 20 17 14 12 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 59 67 66 51 75 53 38 31 20 9 7 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 74 60 64 84 81 48 11 28 20 28 28 22 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 -3 -2 0 -2 0 0 0 3 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 246 244 272 307 343 372 284 264 281 279 359 425 585 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.6 20.5 21.4 22.4 23.4 24.0 24.2 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.5 106.3 107.1 107.8 108.5 109.7 110.9 112.0 113.2 114.4 115.6 117.1 119.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 17 14 11 8 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 441 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -10. -17. -23. -30. -38. -44. -51. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 14. 16. 12. 3. -13. -29. -43. -56. -67. -76. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.1 105.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062025 FLOSSIE 07/01/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.24 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.76 6.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -7.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.11 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.4% 37.9% 25.0% 17.7% 14.6% 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 34.0% 36.9% 21.5% 14.1% 6.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 26.8% 9.6% 5.2% 3.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 30.7% 28.1% 17.2% 11.7% 7.4% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 38.0% 42.0% 27.0% 16.0% 11.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 34.3% 35.0% 22.1% 13.8% 9.2% 4.6% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062025 FLOSSIE 07/01/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##