* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062025 07/01/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 101 104 102 100 85 70 54 38 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 101 104 102 100 85 70 54 38 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 101 101 98 94 78 61 47 36 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 9 10 12 13 11 15 10 14 16 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 2 1 2 2 1 -2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 67 81 62 84 109 121 117 133 144 141 168 165 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 27.7 27.2 27.2 26.8 24.9 24.2 23.6 21.9 21.2 20.8 20.8 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 141 135 135 130 111 103 97 79 72 68 68 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 76 72 72 69 62 58 54 53 52 51 48 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 19 19 21 20 18 15 12 10 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 64 55 48 59 71 40 30 25 15 0 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 59 69 66 64 37 10 19 6 21 18 -1 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 -2 2 0 5 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 262 285 318 351 396 317 283 315 329 390 473 547 663 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.3 20.1 20.9 21.7 22.5 23.1 23.6 23.9 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.3 108.0 108.7 109.3 110.4 111.7 112.8 114.1 115.5 117.0 118.5 120.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 13 10 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 439 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -11. -20. -29. -38. -47. -55. -63. -69. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 2. 1. -0. -5. -9. -12. -14. -14. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 7. 5. -10. -25. -41. -57. -69. -80. -90. -99. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 17.5 106.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062025 FLOSSIE 07/01/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.05 0.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 6.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.69 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 255.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.07 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 37.8% 23.5% 18.6% 15.9% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 32.1% 17.5% 10.5% 5.4% 4.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 13.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 27.8% 13.7% 9.7% 7.1% 5.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 30.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 28.9% 10.3% 6.8% 4.5% 3.4% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062025 FLOSSIE 07/01/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##