* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062025 07/02/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 97 94 87 79 64 48 32 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 97 94 87 79 64 48 32 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 98 92 85 76 60 47 35 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 14 12 12 14 13 19 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -3 0 0 4 1 1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 47 63 91 108 114 125 136 156 167 181 174 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.2 26.8 25.4 24.7 24.2 23.0 21.7 20.7 20.7 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 131 116 109 103 91 78 67 67 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 73 69 63 58 55 52 50 50 52 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 19 18 16 16 13 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 49 57 67 59 30 24 20 3 -6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 49 48 28 15 -4 27 21 29 -1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 6 1 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 316 346 392 348 311 281 311 322 402 470 563 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.2 21.0 22.0 22.9 23.6 23.9 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.6 109.3 110.0 110.7 111.8 113.1 114.5 115.9 117.4 118.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 8 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 460 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -9. -18. -29. -40. -51. -61. -69. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -13. -21. -36. -52. -68. -82. -94. -104. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 18.4 107.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062025 FLOSSIE 07/02/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 382.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 58.2 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062025 FLOSSIE 07/02/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##