* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062025 07/02/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 77 69 61 54 40 28 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 77 69 61 54 40 28 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 77 68 60 53 40 31 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 13 11 10 9 12 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 1 1 2 -4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 92 106 107 108 112 133 172 190 200 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 25.4 24.6 24.1 24.2 22.3 21.0 20.6 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 116 108 103 104 84 71 67 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 61 55 52 49 41 40 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 17 15 12 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 64 56 44 35 34 24 6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 33 7 -12 0 5 7 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 6 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 406 359 324 295 294 338 376 440 521 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.7 21.2 22.2 23.2 24.1 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.1 110.8 111.5 112.2 113.8 115.4 117.2 118.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 440 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -18. -28. -38. -47. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -24. -31. -45. -57. -69. -80. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.3 109.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062025 FLOSSIE 07/02/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 469.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062025 FLOSSIE 07/02/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##