* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062025 07/03/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 60 52 45 39 27 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 60 52 45 39 27 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 60 52 45 40 31 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 7 13 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 5 0 -3 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 103 95 99 109 129 130 170 199 186 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 24.6 24.2 24.2 23.5 21.8 20.5 20.7 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 108 104 104 97 79 66 68 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 54 51 48 44 41 38 38 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 18 17 15 12 9 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 54 42 28 30 28 3 -7 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 -12 -9 2 14 5 0 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 1 0 3 0 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 371 326 304 301 329 348 425 465 546 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.1 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.5 23.5 24.3 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.7 111.4 112.2 112.9 114.4 116.1 117.8 119.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 454 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -15. -23. -30. -37. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -18. -25. -31. -43. -54. -63. -72. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.6 109.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062025 FLOSSIE 07/03/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 458.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% .7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062025 FLOSSIE 07/03/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##