* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062025 07/03/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 46 39 33 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 46 39 33 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 45 37 32 28 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 11 10 12 17 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 3 3 -2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 98 105 112 115 118 161 182 189 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.3 24.2 24.0 22.8 21.4 20.4 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 105 104 102 90 75 64 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 52 48 45 45 40 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 14 13 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 45 27 23 25 12 -2 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -11 1 15 12 9 4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 2 2 0 6 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 340 311 305 316 332 348 433 487 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.4 21.9 23.1 23.8 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.2 111.9 112.6 113.3 115.0 116.6 118.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 9 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -17. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -12. -12. -10. -8. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -16. -22. -28. -38. -48. -58. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.9 110.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062025 FLOSSIE 07/03/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 384.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.58 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% 1.5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062025 FLOSSIE 07/03/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##