* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST AL802025 07/03/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 81 80 80 78 74 69 66 61 58 55 51 49 50 52 55 V (KT) LAND 85 82 81 80 80 78 74 69 66 61 58 55 51 49 50 52 55 V (KT) LGEM 85 83 81 78 76 74 72 70 66 64 60 56 50 46 45 46 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 23 19 10 5 8 16 16 6 14 22 29 23 20 11 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 0 0 -1 -5 -3 -1 3 -1 -7 -2 -3 -2 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 15 13 17 8 308 272 287 299 290 11 45 59 63 76 95 133 158 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.0 27.5 26.6 25.9 24.1 24.2 23.7 23.6 23.5 23.8 24.5 25.7 26.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 149 138 132 121 114 100 99 95 94 93 94 99 109 116 120 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.6 -55.5 -55.5 -55.9 -56.2 -56.5 -56.4 -57.2 -57.0 -56.5 -56.0 -55.9 -55.8 -56.0 -56.0 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 60 61 59 58 56 50 47 42 42 43 44 46 47 46 47 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -51 -48 -42 -39 -35 -38 -74 -88 -100 -105 -108 -128 -112 -107 -85 -83 200 MB DIV 41 36 33 19 20 7 -20 -10 7 -34 -24 -28 -10 -23 -20 -35 -34 700-850 TADV 8 2 -9 -5 7 -5 17 -13 7 -6 1 -1 2 -1 0 -1 -5 LAND (KM) 807 719 694 709 778 901 946 1010 1088 1080 1107 1162 1268 1374 1492 1594 1703 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.8 31.7 32.7 33.6 34.8 35.7 36.4 36.6 36.9 36.8 36.5 35.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.0 70.4 69.9 68.9 67.6 64.5 61.2 58.0 55.1 53.0 51.0 49.7 48.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 11 14 14 14 13 13 10 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 6 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. -2. -9. -17. -25. -32. -38. -43. -48. -52. -56. -60. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 2. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 10. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -11. -16. -19. -24. -27. -30. -34. -36. -35. -33. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 30.0 70.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL802025 TEST 07/03/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.58 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 453.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.46 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.8 109.2 to 0.0 0.89 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 12.2% 8.6% 7.2% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.4% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL802025 TEST 07/03/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL802025 TEST 07/03/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 0( 10) 0( 10) 0( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 82 81 80 80 78 74 69 66 61 58 55 51 49 50 52 55 18HR AGO 85 84 83 82 82 80 76 71 68 63 60 57 53 51 52 54 57 12HR AGO 85 82 81 80 80 78 74 69 66 61 58 55 51 49 50 52 55 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 75 73 69 64 61 56 53 50 46 44 45 47 50 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 64 60 55 52 47 44 41 37 35 36 38 41 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT