* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922025 07/04/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 37 41 44 47 45 42 42 40 41 39 34 43 47 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 37 41 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 28 24 32 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 31 32 34 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 21 20 26 21 20 19 21 16 6 12 13 22 23 18 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 2 3 -3 -4 -5 -3 -6 0 -2 5 2 3 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 286 282 273 252 239 243 200 208 204 233 270 327 333 1 360 37 350 SST (C) 28.4 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.7 29.1 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 151 149 149 148 133 136 136 136 148 143 138 137 136 146 155 135 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.5 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 8 7 5 7 5 9 5 9 6 8 6 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 54 55 57 57 60 59 58 55 57 58 62 61 65 67 70 68 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 11 13 12 12 10 8 8 8 8 7 5 12 16 850 MB ENV VOR 21 13 15 24 19 0 3 -25 -13 -19 -15 -22 -18 -14 21 26 48 200 MB DIV 28 5 7 51 46 1 24 24 2 -1 31 -11 25 6 54 12 50 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 0 -1 -1 1 0 0 0 1 1 4 2 5 16 17 LAND (KM) 101 190 216 197 184 89 -34 -160 -195 -188 -143 -88 -7 50 118 125 274 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.4 30.8 31.1 31.1 31.3 31.6 32.1 32.8 33.4 33.7 33.4 32.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.0 79.4 79.1 79.0 79.2 80.3 81.6 82.8 83.0 82.6 81.5 80.7 80.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 8 4 2 3 6 6 5 3 4 5 4 4 3 7 15 18 HEAT CONTENT 30 38 39 39 37 16 12 3 3 3 3 6 14 14 19 27 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 14 CX,CY: 9/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 766 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 5. 3. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -9. -11. -3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 16. 19. 22. 20. 17. 17. 15. 16. 14. 9. 18. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 29.5 80.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922025 INVEST 07/04/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.45 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.61 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.77 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 12.3% 8.3% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 2.8% 1.8% 1.3% 0.2% 1.6% 1.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.1% 3.4% 2.5% 0.1% 0.5% 2.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922025 INVEST 07/04/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922025 INVEST 07/04/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 34 37 41 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 28 24 32 36 18HR AGO 25 24 28 31 34 38 33 27 25 24 24 24 24 25 21 29 33 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 31 26 20 18 17 17 17 17 18 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT