* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922025 07/04/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 34 36 39 44 46 44 44 43 45 45 47 51 53 48 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 34 36 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 30 31 36 38 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 32 35 38 40 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 19 24 27 11 18 22 20 11 10 9 16 17 23 22 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 4 3 -2 -1 -7 -2 -4 -4 3 1 4 6 2 4 -3 SHEAR DIR 285 274 250 236 243 213 205 194 212 233 294 10 2 42 27 45 28 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.8 30.5 29.8 29.7 28.6 28.4 28.6 27.9 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 141 137 134 133 170 162 161 143 141 145 134 150 148 151 150 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 7 5 8 5 9 6 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 7 700-500 MB RH 52 53 54 57 57 59 56 56 55 61 61 65 63 67 68 71 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 9 11 12 14 13 12 9 10 9 11 10 12 16 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 10 14 28 19 -1 21 -9 0 -26 -6 -28 6 19 26 2 15 9 200 MB DIV 3 0 46 24 -13 14 18 5 -13 -4 5 45 6 26 14 42 33 700-850 TADV 1 1 -1 -3 1 0 2 0 0 2 0 5 8 10 6 18 -5 LAND (KM) 144 150 134 109 61 -74 -185 -238 -293 -307 -183 -40 97 136 213 347 442 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 31.1 31.4 31.5 31.5 31.6 31.7 32.2 32.7 33.2 32.9 32.0 30.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.9 79.7 79.6 79.9 80.5 82.1 83.7 84.7 84.7 84.1 82.8 81.5 80.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 2 4 6 7 6 3 3 5 6 9 8 6 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 31 28 25 18 14 6 4 3 3 3 3 10 18 37 35 27 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 799 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 2. -2. -2. -4. -2. -4. -2. 2. 4. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 11. 14. 19. 21. 19. 19. 18. 20. 20. 22. 26. 28. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 30.4 79.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922025 INVEST 07/04/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.40 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.55 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.75 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 10.3% 7.1% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.9% 2.8% 2.0% 0.0% 0.3% 2.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922025 INVEST 07/04/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922025 INVEST 07/04/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 34 36 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 30 31 36 38 33 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 32 27 24 23 23 23 23 23 26 27 32 34 29 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 27 22 19 18 18 18 18 18 21 22 27 29 24 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT