* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962025 07/04/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 34 43 53 60 63 66 70 72 70 69 67 65 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 34 43 53 60 63 66 70 72 70 69 67 65 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 27 30 33 36 40 43 46 48 50 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 10 13 14 7 7 8 4 5 3 6 6 9 6 2 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -5 -7 -6 -3 0 0 -3 -2 -1 1 -1 -3 -5 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 20 21 18 24 38 67 55 69 120 146 120 115 93 63 70 232 290 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.3 28.0 28.1 27.7 28.1 28.6 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.4 25.2 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 156 156 155 147 144 144 140 145 150 125 123 122 116 114 109 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 82 80 79 77 76 74 78 79 79 78 75 72 70 67 66 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 8 9 12 14 16 18 19 21 21 22 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 27 6 -3 -5 -8 -3 5 14 23 31 29 27 20 23 22 24 23 200 MB DIV 48 54 66 52 7 4 7 1 3 41 57 73 29 29 17 12 5 700-850 TADV 0 3 0 -5 -2 0 1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 508 518 524 525 560 641 768 909 1016 1093 1198 1306 1425 1507 1607 1718 1819 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.2 14.6 14.7 14.6 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.6 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.0 103.1 104.2 105.3 106.4 108.4 110.3 111.9 113.5 115.2 117.0 118.8 120.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 10 10 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 44 45 44 42 37 27 25 23 21 22 22 18 10 7 5 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 38. 39. 40. 39. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. 13. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 14. 23. 33. 40. 43. 46. 50. 52. 50. 49. 47. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.7 102.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 07/04/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.88 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 10.0% 4.3% 1.9% 2.0% 5.7% 12.8% 33.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 1.1% 1.6% Consensus: 0.5% 4.4% 1.6% 0.7% 0.7% 2.1% 4.6% 11.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 07/04/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##