* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922025 07/04/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 41 42 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 41 42 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 37 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 24 24 18 15 15 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 -1 -3 1 -3 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 235 252 249 218 189 170 204 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.1 28.5 28.3 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 146 142 135 142 139 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.2 -0.6 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 5 7 4 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 57 56 59 59 59 60 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 13 14 12 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 20 -7 8 12 -23 -26 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 58 -13 -15 -17 0 4 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 4 2 0 2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 213 191 169 141 108 1 -103 -208 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 3 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 38 35 27 19 15 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.9 79.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922025 INVEST 07/04/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.46 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.52 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.83 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 11.1% 7.7% 5.8% 2.8% 8.3% 8.2% 15.2% Logistic: 1.6% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% 0.1% 1.3% 0.9% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.2% 3.0% 2.2% 1.0% 3.2% 3.0% 5.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 3.1% 2.0% 1.6% .5% 1.6% 1.5% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922025 INVEST 07/04/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922025 INVEST 07/04/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 41 42 31 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 37 38 27 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 31 32 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT