* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962025 07/04/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 39 50 62 70 72 79 76 76 70 65 60 57 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 39 50 62 70 72 79 76 76 70 65 60 57 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 32 35 39 44 47 49 50 48 44 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 10 12 11 9 6 6 4 4 4 8 9 9 5 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -5 -3 -3 -1 0 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 -4 -2 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 31 24 17 16 30 39 75 54 47 91 103 79 47 41 12 313 331 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.0 27.7 27.7 27.1 27.1 26.2 25.4 25.5 25.1 23.5 24.5 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 155 156 153 144 140 140 135 135 126 117 118 114 97 108 104 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.9 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 75 74 76 77 78 77 75 72 68 65 61 61 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 12 15 18 21 22 26 25 26 25 25 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 6 0 -4 -8 -2 7 10 25 33 39 50 49 40 36 34 30 30 200 MB DIV 68 68 48 14 -2 34 26 40 6 46 53 59 12 -5 -23 -6 17 700-850 TADV 3 1 -4 -2 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 494 496 497 514 556 661 798 911 973 1070 1189 1330 1443 1561 1673 1789 1925 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.7 15.8 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.0 104.0 105.1 106.1 107.2 109.2 111.0 112.6 114.4 116.4 118.4 120.5 122.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 44 43 42 37 30 24 22 17 15 15 11 6 4 2 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 7. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 35. 36. 36. 34. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 18. 23. 20. 19. 17. 15. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 19. 30. 42. 50. 52. 59. 56. 56. 50. 45. 40. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.3 103.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 07/04/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.87 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 15.8% 6.3% 3.2% 2.9% 7.8% 18.4% 40.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 1.4% 0.8% Consensus: 0.7% 6.2% 2.2% 1.1% 1.0% 2.8% 6.6% 13.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% SDCON: .3% 4.6% 1.6% .5% .5% 1.9% 4.3% 7.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 07/04/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##