* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032025 07/05/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 36 36 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 36 31 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 32 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 15 11 10 11 9 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 1 -1 -4 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 251 216 191 185 151 167 360 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.3 27.4 27.0 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 151 145 139 127 123 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 7 5 8 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 54 59 58 60 60 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 14 13 10 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 13 11 -11 -34 -39 -46 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 3 7 1 -7 8 0 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 6 4 0 2 0 0 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 249 215 179 122 64 -40 -118 -83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.7 31.0 31.3 31.8 32.3 33.6 34.9 36.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.7 78.9 79.0 79.2 79.4 79.5 78.9 77.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 41 37 26 16 11 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.7 78.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032025 THREE 07/05/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.66 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.79 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.14 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.54 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.88 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 10.1% 6.9% 5.4% 3.0% 8.5% 9.3% 18.2% Logistic: 2.1% 3.6% 2.7% 2.0% 0.4% 3.1% 4.1% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.6% 3.2% 2.5% 1.1% 3.9% 4.5% 6.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 2.8% 2.1% 1.7% .5% 1.9% 2.2% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032025 THREE 07/05/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032025 THREE 07/05/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 36 31 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 33 28 25 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 28 23 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT