* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962025 07/06/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 31 31 29 25 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 31 31 29 25 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 16 15 13 14 12 10 11 7 9 10 13 10 16 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 1 2 -2 0 0 -5 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 50 56 63 72 69 75 93 110 154 187 200 211 230 257 280 267 253 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.0 25.9 24.0 23.4 22.2 22.1 22.3 21.8 21.9 22.3 23.2 23.8 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 136 134 123 123 104 98 86 85 86 81 82 87 96 103 110 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 -0.6 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 700-500 MB RH 74 75 76 77 78 73 73 66 66 61 60 54 52 44 40 33 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 6 13 19 22 3 23 2 -13 -27 -14 -6 2 4 10 10 8 200 MB DIV -9 5 53 67 20 -24 17 -6 -9 -1 -14 -24 -8 -4 -16 -2 -8 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 0 2 2 1 3 8 6 10 7 12 10 1 6 3 LAND (KM) 629 683 738 759 746 768 884 1014 1176 1370 1600 1855 2037 1778 1445 1100 756 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.7 17.5 18.3 19.0 19.8 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.2 111.0 111.8 112.7 114.6 117.0 119.7 122.7 125.8 128.8 131.8 134.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 9 9 11 13 14 15 15 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 17 13 9 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 17. 16. 12. 9. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 0. -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 109.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 07/06/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.66 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.39 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.6% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 4.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.0% 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 3.6% 3.4% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: .1% 4.0% 2.2% 0% 0% 1.8% 1.7% .7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 07/06/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##