* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962025 07/07/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 35 34 31 28 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 35 34 31 28 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 32 32 31 28 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 16 15 16 13 11 13 13 11 9 10 8 9 12 18 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 0 -1 1 -1 -4 -1 0 0 -6 -4 -6 -5 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 66 70 65 68 83 75 89 115 116 126 144 188 206 252 260 254 235 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 26.7 25.6 25.0 25.5 22.9 22.2 21.7 21.4 21.5 21.4 21.5 22.4 23.5 24.0 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 130 119 113 119 92 85 80 77 78 77 78 88 99 104 111 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 75 77 77 76 75 76 68 70 64 64 58 56 50 46 41 39 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 18 22 22 20 21 -4 -15 -28 -12 -3 3 -5 -2 0 -5 -19 200 MB DIV 47 56 22 -20 5 6 -6 -4 0 11 -3 -8 -4 -15 -5 -18 13 700-850 TADV 1 1 3 5 3 1 5 5 10 8 11 6 18 6 15 9 21 LAND (KM) 725 774 760 748 744 813 891 1022 1169 1353 1583 1771 1947 1762 1449 1133 838 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.3 18.2 19.3 20.3 21.1 21.7 22.1 22.3 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.5 112.2 113.0 113.9 116.0 118.4 121.1 123.9 126.6 129.4 132.2 135.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 19 15 12 8 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 6. 2. -2. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -8. -12. -17. -18. -20. -22. -24. -27. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 110.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 07/07/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.54 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.37 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 12.8% 9.1% 6.5% 0.0% 11.3% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 4.8% 3.2% 2.2% 0.0% 3.8% 3.3% 0.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.8% 2.9% 2.1% 1.1% 0% 1.9% 1.6% .1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 07/07/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##