* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962025 07/07/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 28 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 28 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 16 15 14 15 11 14 14 14 13 18 16 19 21 29 20 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -4 -3 0 -2 0 -2 -2 -6 1 0 SHEAR DIR 78 78 76 92 93 109 137 171 175 188 208 239 255 263 252 247 250 SST (C) 26.9 25.8 24.4 25.0 24.8 22.7 22.1 21.6 21.4 21.3 21.3 22.0 22.6 23.6 24.0 24.5 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 121 107 114 112 91 85 79 77 76 76 83 89 100 104 109 117 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.6 -54.7 -55.2 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 76 77 75 75 74 70 67 65 61 59 55 49 44 39 36 32 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 19 16 15 13 -1 -21 -31 -21 -9 0 0 -1 -7 4 -3 -15 200 MB DIV 36 -1 -22 -6 3 8 -14 9 0 6 -25 -9 -19 -8 -22 21 0 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 1 0 3 6 10 11 10 7 8 8 3 8 7 20 LAND (KM) 679 656 659 684 746 860 1010 1178 1400 1648 1824 1994 1696 1377 1063 774 552 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.7 20.6 21.3 21.8 22.1 22.2 22.2 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.5 113.4 114.5 115.7 118.4 121.3 124.2 127.2 130.1 132.9 135.8 138.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 14 15 14 13 14 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 7 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -10. -10. -9. -9. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -11. -16. -21. -25. -28. -32. -34. -38. -39. -41. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.0 111.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 07/07/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.45 2.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.40 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.17 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 8.6% 5.8% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.0% 2.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .7% 2.0% 1.0% .5% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 07/07/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##