* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962025 07/07/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 21 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 21 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 15 16 15 17 17 14 15 20 20 19 23 30 33 28 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 1 1 -2 -4 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -3 -7 -6 0 5 SHEAR DIR 74 75 92 87 95 119 157 184 183 199 222 241 263 258 250 239 258 SST (C) 25.5 24.2 24.2 23.8 22.8 21.7 21.5 21.0 20.9 20.9 21.5 21.9 22.6 23.4 24.1 24.8 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 119 105 106 102 91 80 78 73 71 71 77 82 89 98 105 112 118 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -54.7 -55.3 -55.5 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 76 74 72 73 73 66 66 60 58 52 49 42 39 34 32 29 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 11 9 9 3 -26 -38 -30 -17 -13 -11 -23 -19 -13 -21 -32 -48 200 MB DIV -10 -30 -16 12 5 -1 6 17 12 -1 -11 -6 -6 -9 7 11 15 700-850 TADV 4 4 2 0 1 8 9 13 10 12 9 14 6 10 12 14 14 LAND (KM) 625 619 644 708 748 895 1048 1260 1503 1629 1807 1859 1572 1278 1016 811 698 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.5 20.0 21.0 21.9 22.7 23.2 23.7 23.8 23.9 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.5 114.6 115.9 117.2 120.1 123.1 126.2 129.1 131.9 134.6 137.4 140.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 14 15 15 14 13 13 12 13 14 14 13 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. -6. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -18. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -15. -22. -26. -31. -34. -36. -39. -43. -46. -48. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.8 112.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 07/07/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.38 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0% .6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 07/07/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##