* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962025 07/07/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 21 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 21 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 17 15 14 16 12 11 13 16 16 22 26 34 32 31 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -3 0 -1 -2 0 -2 -3 -9 -4 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 77 93 93 102 115 131 168 169 190 202 238 258 266 250 237 251 261 SST (C) 25.2 25.7 25.7 24.7 23.8 22.7 21.5 21.2 21.3 21.2 22.4 22.5 23.9 24.2 25.0 25.4 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 115 121 121 111 102 91 78 75 76 74 87 88 103 106 115 118 121 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.5 -54.6 -55.1 -54.7 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 72 68 66 64 59 57 53 46 40 35 32 30 28 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 23 16 7 -1 -23 -35 -24 -10 -2 -9 -8 -9 -5 -15 -28 -41 200 MB DIV -26 -8 4 3 -2 -3 10 3 0 -6 -1 -16 4 -15 16 -12 18 700-850 TADV 4 3 0 1 6 6 8 12 9 8 11 10 6 13 9 25 14 LAND (KM) 686 722 777 823 883 1025 1195 1406 1648 1787 1973 1698 1396 1104 835 620 521 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.6 20.6 21.4 22.0 22.4 22.7 22.8 22.9 22.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.8 116.0 117.3 118.6 121.5 124.5 127.4 130.3 133.0 135.8 138.8 141.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 14 14 15 13 14 12 13 13 14 14 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. -5. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -13. -19. -24. -27. -31. -33. -36. -39. -41. -43. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.8 113.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 07/07/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.47 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0% 1.5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 07/07/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##