* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962025 07/08/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 16 15 13 12 12 12 14 14 16 19 24 31 31 24 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 0 -2 -1 -3 -5 -6 -4 3 1 SHEAR DIR 90 89 97 114 120 138 159 171 196 209 235 259 257 246 237 258 247 SST (C) 25.9 25.7 24.7 24.0 23.5 22.0 21.1 21.4 21.1 21.3 22.5 22.8 23.7 24.4 24.9 25.5 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 111 104 99 83 74 77 73 75 88 91 101 108 113 119 118 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 -54.4 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 67 65 67 61 59 53 51 43 40 35 34 30 30 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 7 -1 -15 -31 -35 -20 -13 -8 -19 -7 -4 -14 -19 -25 -45 200 MB DIV -5 4 3 -2 -3 -1 4 17 0 -4 -13 -7 -9 4 6 4 8 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 7 9 4 12 5 10 6 15 4 14 14 19 16 20 LAND (KM) 737 799 855 906 984 1115 1293 1504 1701 1853 1892 1611 1315 1033 787 628 562 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.9 21.7 22.2 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.1 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.9 116.1 117.4 118.7 120.1 123.0 125.9 128.6 131.5 134.1 136.9 139.7 142.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 13 13 14 14 14 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. -4. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -13. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -14. -19. -24. -28. -30. -33. -36. -40. -41. -43. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.1 114.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 07/08/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0% 1.7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 07/08/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##