* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962025 07/08/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 14 12 12 14 14 16 18 16 19 21 26 27 30 27 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -6 -2 -5 -2 1 4 SHEAR DIR 90 101 118 132 135 155 160 183 207 218 233 252 250 231 239 255 277 SST (C) 25.9 25.0 23.8 23.4 22.7 21.4 21.0 21.3 21.2 21.6 22.1 22.8 23.6 24.3 24.8 25.6 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 123 114 102 98 91 77 72 75 74 78 84 92 100 107 112 120 118 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.4 -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 71 72 67 64 65 63 59 56 51 45 40 36 32 30 27 28 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 4 -8 -21 -23 -38 -29 -25 -6 -21 -17 -14 -16 -19 -18 -32 -35 200 MB DIV 8 3 -6 -4 -5 -5 8 -1 -9 6 -20 2 -17 14 -13 12 -12 700-850 TADV 0 0 5 9 6 8 9 9 9 13 14 11 16 14 24 19 17 LAND (KM) 768 812 860 937 1003 1141 1327 1554 1688 1839 1863 1586 1301 1025 781 616 537 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.6 22.3 22.7 23.1 23.4 23.6 23.7 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.8 117.0 118.3 119.7 121.2 124.0 126.7 129.4 132.0 134.6 137.3 140.1 143.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 12 12 14 14 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 0. -2. -3. -2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. -3. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. -11. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -13. -18. -22. -26. -29. -32. -35. -39. -41. -43. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 18.6 115.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 07/08/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.44 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 07/08/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##