* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932025 07/15/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 28 32 31 30 30 31 33 32 31 29 31 34 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 31 32 31 30 29 30 34 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 31 33 34 35 36 35 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 17 16 11 14 5 10 4 7 6 19 26 27 25 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -5 -1 -5 -4 -1 3 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -6 0 5 SHEAR DIR 36 28 33 35 52 5 33 28 117 85 94 26 44 33 33 351 252 SST (C) 27.3 27.9 30.3 30.7 30.7 30.4 29.3 29.0 27.4 28.7 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 127 135 171 170 170 170 156 152 131 147 129 125 127 130 131 131 128 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 7 10 7 11 5 7 5 6 5 6 7 7 4 3 700-500 MB RH 65 64 62 65 64 59 60 64 66 64 66 65 69 68 70 58 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -24 -38 -47 -46 -96 -60 -68 -45 -44 -31 -30 -1 18 20 4 22 200 MB DIV 33 10 0 2 7 2 -14 11 10 12 16 -3 -29 7 0 30 53 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -3 -6 0 2 8 -5 7 0 9 3 5 3 3 9 1 LAND (KM) 6 -58 -97 -125 -167 -313 -328 -297 -119 98 318 431 481 509 632 719 825 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.2 30.5 31.1 31.6 32.9 34.3 35.1 35.5 34.5 33.3 32.3 32.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.2 82.0 82.9 83.6 84.1 84.6 83.7 81.8 78.4 75.4 73.5 72.9 72.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 6 7 8 11 15 11 8 3 4 9 16 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 8 5 5 4 4 4 2 29 12 11 10 8 7 8 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 7. 4. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 6. 5. 5. 6. 8. 7. 6. 4. 6. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 29.8 81.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932025 INVEST 07/15/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.66 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.86 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.72 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 11.7% 7.5% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 9.1% 4.9% 1.5% 0.6% 2.5% 4.8% 6.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 7.1% 4.1% 2.3% 0.2% 0.8% 5.0% 2.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .7% 3.5% 2.0% 1.1% .1% .4% 2.5% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932025 INVEST 07/15/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932025 INVEST 07/15/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 31 32 31 30 29 30 34 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 31 32 31 30 29 30 34 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 23 23 23 23 26 27 28 27 26 25 26 30 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 16 16 16 19 20 21 20 19 18 19 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT