* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932025 07/16/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 28 29 29 29 30 31 31 33 33 31 28 28 30 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 31 31 29 26 25 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 31 33 33 33 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 15 12 7 21 13 11 4 8 9 17 21 30 29 35 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -4 -3 -4 -3 -1 3 0 2 0 0 1 -4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 62 29 7 33 17 358 17 16 70 135 68 70 45 28 26 358 359 SST (C) 30.6 31.1 31.4 31.5 31.4 31.1 31.3 31.3 29.1 29.2 28.2 29.0 28.9 28.3 28.2 28.8 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 170 170 170 170 170 170 154 156 140 151 148 136 135 146 151 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 7 6 10 5 10 6 11 6 10 7 9 6 7 6 8 700-500 MB RH 61 59 57 61 63 65 67 66 67 67 67 69 71 70 67 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -79 -102 -105 -57 -89 -63 -114 -84 -61 -23 -16 0 10 18 17 0 200 MB DIV 7 11 9 6 19 18 -15 18 17 6 -5 19 -8 20 14 0 -12 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -9 -2 -1 0 3 1 16 9 15 9 9 -4 1 -5 3 LAND (KM) 8 10 -25 -63 -136 -287 -393 -476 -525 -335 -91 107 243 315 303 238 145 LAT (DEG N) 30.1 30.3 30.7 31.2 31.7 33.0 34.2 35.0 35.6 35.3 34.4 33.1 32.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.9 86.9 87.7 88.4 88.9 89.5 88.9 87.5 85.2 82.3 79.4 77.4 76.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 7 7 6 7 8 11 12 12 8 5 1 2 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 19 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 24 34 24 23 32 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 387 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 8. 4. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 8. 6. 3. 3. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 30.1 85.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932025 INVEST 07/16/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.78 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.86 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.98 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 16.2% 10.1% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 8.1% 44.9% 35.7% 17.0% 9.2% 17.3% 9.0% 13.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 3.3% 20.5% 15.3% 8.0% 3.1% 5.8% 6.8% 4.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 10.2% 7.6% 4.0% 1.5% 2.9% 3.4% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932025 INVEST 07/16/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932025 INVEST 07/16/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 31 31 29 26 25 28 18HR AGO 25 24 23 24 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 30 30 28 25 24 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 28 28 26 23 22 25 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 21 21 19 16 15 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT